Spotting Unsustainable Overperformance in Ligue 1 2012/13 Teams with Low Expected Goals and High Finishing Efficiency
Throughout the 2012/13 Ligue 1 season, several clubs consistently outperformed their underlying goal-generation metrics by converting low-probability chances into wins. While casual observers and media narratives praised these sides for lethal efficiency and clinical composure in front of goal, quantitative metrics painted a far more fragile picture. When a team generates minimal expected goals (xG)…
